Abstract:
Among the many unknowns about COVID-19 are its true mortality rate and the speed at which it spreads across communities. This column analyses daily death registry data for a sample of 1,161 Italian municipalities in the seven regions most severely hit by COVID-19. The findings suggest that the virus may have killed 0.1% of the local population in just over a month and that its mortality is vastly underreported in official statistics, plausibly by a factor of two. But there is also good news for policymakers – in the Veneto region, which has embraced mass testing, contact tracing, and at-home care provision, COVID-19-induced mortality is significantly lower than in neighbouring Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia.